Dr. Yemi Kale, Group Chief Economist and Managing Director of Research and Trade Intelligence at Afreximbank, has warned that Nigeria must achieve an annual growth rate of at least 40% to mitigate the economic risks posed by the recent tariff increase by the United States. Speaking at the 2025 Vanguard Discourse held in Lagos, Kale emphasized the urgency of bold, long-term reforms if Nigeria is to meet its ambitious one trillion-dollar economic vision.
He called on the Nigerian government to proactively design and implement strategies that anticipate the fallout from global trade shifts, particularly those resulting from U.S. policy changes. Citing Nigeria’s potential, Kale encouraged the nation to harness its youthful population and natural resource wealth to tap into African and international markets.
“The path to economic resilience, inclusive prosperity and reducing economic hardship is neither quick nor easy, but it is clear. We know what must be done. The foundational pillars are not in question. Stabilise the macro-economy, restore credibility in fiscal and monetary policy, curb inflation and rebuild investor confidence. Diversify the productive base, unlock the potential of agriculture, manufacturing, services and the digital economy. Invest in people and institutions because sustainable growth only happens when human capital is empowered and governance systems are effective,” he said.
Kale also drew attention to Nigeria’s low agricultural productivity, especially in maize farming, where yields fall far below global standards. He stressed the importance of addressing these inefficiencies and called for inclusive growth that creates jobs and builds resilience.
He noted that the discourse’s theme, “Economic Hardship and Pathways to Recovery,” reflects both the challenges Nigerians face and their continued optimism for national renewal.
Also speaking at the event, the President of the Nigerian Association of Chambers of Commerce, Industry, Mines and Agriculture (NACCIMA), Dele Kelvin Oye, described the U.S. tariff hike as a significant threat to Nigeria’s fragile economy.
“This tariff directly jeopardises enterprise growth and could precipitate job losses, particularly in our non-oil export sectors,” he said.
Oye, who also chairs the Organised Private Sector of Nigeria (OPSN), urged the federal government to foster closer collaboration with the business community when crafting policy.
“We appeal to the government to listen to us more before making policy changes. Sudden decisions, whether on taxation or trade, disrupt investment flows and weaken investor confidence,” he said.
Oye warned that Nigeria’s already steep inflation rate—measured at 23.18% in February—and youth unemployment, now surpassing 53%, could worsen unless infrastructure and skills development become a national priority. He advised the government to diversify its trade portfolio beyond reliance on the United States.
“Instead of relying heavily on America, we should build new trade partnerships. There are opportunities across Africa, Asia, and Latin America we must explore,” he said.
Other speakers at the event highlighted the importance of execution, not just policy design, in achieving tangible results.
The CEO of the Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG), Mr. Tayo Aduloju, stressed that Nigeria’s development hinges on strengthening its institutional framework.
“We must have very strong political, economic and social institutions. Poor quality of leadership and weak institutions are responsible for where we are as a nation today,” he said.
Dr. Muda Yusuf, CEO of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), criticised Nigeria’s current trade policy approach.
“We have a trade policy that seems to be centered mainly on revenue generation. This puts unnecessary pressure on businesses. The tariff regime in Nigeria is too high,” he said.
The panelists collectively underscored that for Nigeria to thrive in an increasingly complex global economy, reform must be matched by effective implementation.
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