TikTok’s Global Ad Boom Faces Uncertainty Amid Potential US Ban

...$12bn in Ad Revenue at Stake as US Remains TikTok’s Largest Market

TikTok, the ByteDance-owned video-sharing platform, is increasingly recognized for its ability to drive full-funnel marketing outcomes—from discovery to search to purchase. However, concerns over a potential US ban introduce uncertainty for advertisers and creators.

Alex Brownsell, Head of Content at WARC Media and author of the report, states: “On 18 January, US TikTok users experienced a 12-hour outage due to regulatory restrictions citing national security concerns. President Donald Trump’s 75-day extension to 5 April provides little reassurance regarding TikTok’s future in brand marketing strategies.

“In this report, we explore the potential ramifications of a US ban on TikTok’s ad revenue and examine the platform’s growing influence on consumer behavior and campaign effectiveness.”

Providing data-driven insights into TikTok’s opportunities and challenges, WARC Media’s latest Platform Insights report highlights essential information for advertisers, spanning investment, consumption, and performance metrics.

Investment: TikTok’s Global Ad Revenue Set to Reach $32.4bn, US Market Faces $12bn Risk

By 2025, assuming no US ban, TikTok’s ad spend is projected to hit $32.4bn, a 24.5% year-on-year increase. This surpasses Facebook’s growth (+9.3%) and Instagram’s (+19.0%), securing TikTok an 11% share of the global social media ad market.

WARC’s Marketer’s Toolkit survey reveals that global marketers are more inclined to increase TikTok investments in 2025 than any other digital platform. Among agency respondents, 81% support TikTok ad growth, compared to 74% of brand marketers.

Although the US remains TikTok’s largest market, its share of the platform’s total ad revenue is declining—from 43.3% in 2022 to an estimated 34.0% by 2026. Rapid growth outside the US may cushion the impact of any ban.

Should TikTok remain operational in the US, it is expected to generate $11.8bn in ad revenue in 2025, reflecting a 21.0% increase. This outpaces the projected 10.6% overall US social media ad investment growth. If banned, Instagram is expected to capture the largest share of displaced ad spend, followed by YouTube and Snapchat.

Consumption: TikTok Users Spend 35 Hours Monthly on the App

With an ad reach of 1.59bn users, TikTok is the fifth most-used mobile app worldwide and the second most popular among women aged 16-24. The US remains TikTok’s largest market, boasting 136m active adult accounts—equivalent to two in five Americans.

TikTok’s user engagement dwarfs competitors, with global users averaging 35 hours per month on the platform—more than double Instagram’s usage rates. In the US, this rises to nearly 44 hours per month, or approximately 1.5 hours daily.

Short-form video alternatives like Instagram Reels and YouTube Shorts stand to gain traction in the event of a TikTok ban, particularly in the US and Canada.

More than 57% of TikTok users globally rely on the platform’s search function to explore brands and products, according to We Are Social. While advertisers show intrigue, concerns remain regarding effectiveness and brand safety.

Performance: TikTok Advertising Drives Amazon Sales

Kantar’s latest Media Reactions study ranks TikTok and Amazon as the top two most preferred ad platforms among consumers, with TikTok also seen as the most engaging. However, concerns over excessive targeting and lower trust levels compared to YouTube, Netflix, and Instagram persist.

TikTok’s 2025 trends emphasize creative quality and variety as performance drivers. AI-powered tools like TikTok Symphony and TikTok One have been introduced to support advertisers.

Data confirms that branded content collaborations with creators enhance engagement, view-through rates, and ad recall.

A recent study by Fospha underscores TikTok’s growing influence on Amazon sales. TikTok’s direct-to-consumer return on ad spend (ROAS) is 2.4x. However, when factoring in Amazon sales impact, its Unified-ROAS metric jumps to 4.2x—revealing TikTok’s previously unseen effect on e-commerce.