...Calls for Stabilisation and Strategic Reforms
The Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) has launched its 2025 Macroeconomic Outlook Report, titled “Stabilisation in Transition: Rethinking Reform Strategies for 2025 and Beyond.” The report, presented on January 23, 2025, provides a comprehensive analysis of Nigeria’s economic reform progress and highlights the critical steps needed to ensure stability and sustainable growth.
Addressing attendees, NESG Chairman, Mr. Niyi Yusuf, reflected on the strides made in 2024 and the challenges ahead. “Last year marked a significant step toward economic transformation as key conditions began to stabilise... Macroeconomic indicators show that Nigeria is yet to achieve full stability. Inflationary pressures, rising food prices, infrastructure deficits, and exchange rate depreciation remain persistent challenges,” Yusuf explained.
He stressed the need for cohesive policies to address inflation, infrastructure deficits, and exchange rate depreciation. “Aligning monetary, fiscal, trade, and regulatory strategies is essential to transition Nigeria to the Consolidation Phase of its Economic Transformation Roadmap, attracting investments in key sectors.”
Dr. Olusegun Omisakin, NESG’s Chief Economist, outlined a vision for growth. ““A GDP growth rate of 5.5% is achievable if Nigeria continues with stability-focused reforms,” he projected.
The report underscores the urgency of sustaining reform momentum while addressing economic vulnerabilities, offering a roadmap for Nigeria’s economic stabilisation and long-term prosperity.
“However, inefficient policy implementation and economic constraints could limit growth to 3.4%, and a reversal of reforms could see it drop to 2.7%. The quality of policy execution in 2025 will determine whether Nigeria reaches its stabilization goals or falls short.”
Dr. Omisakin also emphasized the importance of continuing the foreign exchange price discovery exercise initiated in 2023. “Exchange rate stability will be crucial,” he said. “We believe operating at an exchange rate of ₦1,200 to $1 will significantly contribute to economic stability.”
CBN Governor, Mr. Olayemi Cardoso, delivered the keynote address, lauding NESG’s contributions to Nigeria’s socioeconomic discourse. “The launch of this report highlights NESG’s commitment to fostering economic development,” he remarked.
“The CBN is taking transformative steps, including the establishment of a Compliance Department to align with global standards and enhance transparency. This department will be operational by February 2025.”
Cardoso also announced plans to launch a Foreign Exchange Code aimed at ensuring transparency and fairness in the FX market. “We are committed to reducing the disparity between bureau de change and official exchange rates while fostering exchange rate stability to attract foreign investments and support fiscal operations,” he added.
World Bank Senior Economist for Nigeria, Dr. Samer Matta, emphasized the need to mitigate the impact of reforms on the poor and vulnerable. “Reforms are tough choices, but scaling up and financing social interventions is crucial for ensuring a sustainable future,” he said.
IMF Country Representative for Nigeria, Dr. Christian H. Ebeke, addressed inflationary pressures caused by deficit financing. “Creating money not backed by output has fuelled inflation,” he explained. “Improved fiscal discipline is necessary to address this issue.”
From a fiscal perspective, Mr. Taiwo Oyedele, Chairman of the Presidential Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms Committee, noted, “Borrowing is a better approach to deficit financing than printing money.
“Tax reforms, such as improved VAT collection and harmonisation of tax processes, show that Nigeria is on the right path. These measures will enhance revenue generation and fiscal sustainability.”
Professor Bright Eregha, a macroeconomics expert at Pan Atlantic University, also shared insights on Nigeria’s growth trajectory.
“We’ve seen real growth over the past three quarters, and I expect the average growth for 2024 to be higher than in recent years. If we sustain this momentum, 2025 could deliver even better outcomes,” he stated.
NESG CEO Dr. Tayo Aduloju emphasised the crucial role of governance and partnerships in Nigeria’s progress. "Nigeria must prioritise governance in every conversation. Strategic partnerships, collaboration, and coordination are essential for driving the transformative changes we need," he stated.
The 2025 Macroeconomic Outlook Report provides a clear roadmap for policymakers, business leaders, and stakeholders, guiding the nation towards economic stabilisation and inclusive growth.
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