The Overlooked Half: How Short-Term Marketing ROI Misses Long-Term Gains

A recent report from WARC and Google, Beyond the Horizon: The Holistic Path to Measuring Media Investments, emphasizes that effective marketing strategies require a balanced view of both immediate and sustained impact. With the industry heavily focused on short-term ROI, brands risk underestimating the full value of their media investments, leading to less-informed budget decisions. Marketing Mix Modelling (MMM) is highlighted as a key tool for achieving a more comprehensive understanding of returns.

The study explores insights from EMEA, underscoring the critical need for brands to measure long-term effects alongside short-term performance. By connecting brand metrics with sales outcomes, marketers can better assess the overall impact of their campaigns.

Rica Facundo, Managing Editor at WARC, notes: “This partnership with Google uncovers the challenges in measuring long-term impacts and introduces best practices to help brands capture more detailed and strategic insights from their efforts.”

Senior Marketing Research Managers at YouTube Ads, Michal Protasiuk and Ahmet Bas, echo the sentiment, stressing that “short-term metrics alone cannot guide a sustainable marketing strategy.” They highlight the importance of investing across the funnel—from brand awareness to conversion—to build both immediate and lasting returns.

Key Takeaways from the Report:

Short-Term ROI Alone Misses 50% of Media Returns

According to an MMM analysis by Ekimetrics, a narrow focus on short-term performance can obscure nearly half of the potential media returns that stem from long-term brand building. Peter Grant, Head of Media Effectiveness at Boots, adds, “Ignoring long-term health may lead to unsustainable outcomes, where today’s gains don’t support tomorrow’s growth.”

Full-Funnel Marketing Drives Long-Term Success

The research reveals that investing in upper- and mid-funnel marketing, such as brand awareness, can enhance both long-term growth and immediate sales. A Nielsen study for Google found that a 1% increase in upper- and mid-funnel activities led to a 0.6% increase in long-term sales and a 0.4% lift in short-term sales. Lower-funnel investments to drive purchase intent also yielded a 0.7% increase in short-term and 0.2% in long-term sales.

Enhanced MMM Solutions for Optimized ROI

Effective measurement requires multiple tools. A blend of Attribution, Incremental Experiments, and MMM enables brands to connect insights across digital and traditional media, offering a comprehensive view of ROI. With MMM's resurgence, brands gain aggregated insights across diverse media formats, creating a balanced approach to both short- and long-term effectiveness.