China to surpass US as world’s largest aviation market

The world airline industry is entering a period of rapid change and China's carriers may well be the ones to replace US airlines as the international air travel market leaders, according to a new report by aviation intelligence specialist OAG.

China will top US in seat capacity for China-US routes; and will become world's largest aviation market by 2033.

According to OAG’s Schedules Analyser, passenger seat capacity of China's carriers – dominated by China Southern, China Eastern and Air China – has increased dramatically from approximately 100 million seats in 1996 to some 600 million in 2014. This has largely been a result of strong domestic demand, which accounts for about 90% of China carrier capacity.

With their domestic business in solid shape, China’s carriers have the resources to expand internationally and have been doing so rapidly. During a typical week in April 2015, for example, Chinese carriers operated 140% more seats on flights to the US than they did in 2010. In contrast, US carriers increased capacity for these routes by only 80% in the period.


While presently the US carriers are still the capacity leaders for China-US routes, China’s carriers will likely close the gap by 2022 if the two sides maintain their current rates of growth.

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