Increasing
access to modern forms of energy is crucial to unlocking faster
economic and social development in sub Saharan Africa, according to the
International Energy Agency’s (IEA) Africa Energy Outlook,
a Special Report in the 2014 World Energy Outlook series. More than 620
million people in the region (two-thirds of the population) live
without electricity, and nearly 730 million people rely on dangerous,
inefficient forms of cooking.
The use of solid biomass (mainly fuelwood
and charcoal) outweighs that of all other fuels combined, and average
electricity consumption per capita is not enough to power a single
50-watt light bulb continuously.
“A
better functioning energy sector is vital to ensuring that the citizens
of sub-Saharan Africa can fulfil their aspirations,” said IEA Executive
Director Maria van der Hoeven. “The energy sector is acting as a brake
on development, but this can be overcome and the benefits of success are
huge.”
In
the IEA’s first comprehensive analysis of sub-Saharan Africa, it finds
that the region’s energy resources are more than sufficient to meet the
needs of its population, but that they are largely under-developed. The
region accounted for almost 30% of global oil and gas discoveries made
over the last five years, and it is already home to several major energy
producers, including Nigeria, South Africa and Angola. It is also
endowed with huge renewable energy resources, including excellent and
widespread solar and hydro potential, as well as wind and geothermal.
The
report finds that investment in sub-Saharan energy supply has been
growing, but that two-thirds of the total since 2000 has been aimed at
developing resources for export. Grid-based power generation capacity
continues to fall very far short of what is needed, and half of it is
located in just one country (South Africa). Insufficient and unreliable
supply has resulted in large-scale ownership of costly back up
generators. In the report’s central scenario, the sub-Saharan economy
quadruples in size by 2040, the population nearly doubles (to over 1.75
billion) and energy demand grows by around 80%. Power generation
capacity also quadruples: renewables grow strongly to account for nearly
45% of total sub-Saharan capacity, varying in scale from large
hydropower dams to smaller mini- and off-grid solutions, while there is a
greater use of natural gas in gas-producing countries.
Natural
gas production reaches 230 billion cubic metres (bcm) in 2040, led by
Nigeria (which continues to be the largest producer), and increasing
output from Mozambique, Tanzania and Angola. LNG exports onto the global
market triple to around 95 bcm. Oil production exceeds 6 million
barrels per day (mb/d) in 2020 before falling back to 5.3 mb/d in 2040.
Nigeria and Angola continue to be the largest oil producers by far, but
with a host of other producers supplying smaller volumes. Sub-Saharan
demand for oil products doubles to 4 mb/d in 2040, squeezing the
region’s net contribution to the global oil balance. Coal supply grows
by 50%, and continues to be focused on South Africa, but it is joined
increasingly by Mozambique and others.
The
capacity and efficiency of the sub-Saharan energy system increases, but
so do the demands placed upon it, and many of the existing energy
challenges are only partly overcome. In 2040, energy consumption per
capita remains very low, and the widespread use of fuelwood and charcoal
persists. The outlook for providing access to electricity is
bittersweet: nearly one billion people gain access to electricity by
2040 but, because of rapid population growth, more than half a billion
people remain without it. Sub-Saharan Africa also stands on the front
line when it comes to the impacts of climate change, even though it
continues to make only a small contribution to global energy-related
carbon dioxide emissions.
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